Crime and immigration: new evidence from England and Wales

Table 3 Changes in immigrant shares across local authorities, census and annual population survey, A8 and Non-A8 instruments

	Dependent variable: change in immigrant share
	Census, 2001-2011		Annual Population Survey, 2004/5-2010/11
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
A. England and Wales
Predicted change in A8 immigrant share	0.182 (0.157)	0.144 (0.174)	0.530 (0.194)	0.527 (0.188)
Predicted change in Non-A8 immigrant share	0.438 (0.099)	0.469 (0.120)	0.583 (0.143)	0.622 (0.165)
High historical immigrant share	-0.049 (0.010)	-0.043 (0.011)	-0.054 (0.012)	-0.055 (0.014)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Police force area fixed effects	No	Yes	No	Yes
F-test	13.58	9.82	13.02	13.23
Sample size	347	347	347	347
B. London
Predicted change in A8 immigrant share	-0.011 (0.272)	-0.000 (0.279)	0.675 (0.284)	0.547 (0.269)
Predicted change in Non-A8 immigrant share	0.229 (0.193)	0.227 (0.198)	0.730 (0.269)	0.840 (0.270)
High historical immigrant share	-0.016 (0.017)	-0.017 (0.018)	-0.063 (0.017)	-0.064 (0.017)
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Police force area fixed effects	No	Yes	No	Yes
F-test	0.68	0.67	10.60	9.84
Sample Size	33	33	33	33

Notes: Weighted by population. The instrument for change in immigrant share is disaggregated into an A8 and a Non-A8 instruments. High Historical Immigrant Share is a dummy variable equal to one if the Immigrant Share in 1991 Census of the local authority is greater than 0.20. Controls are: population growth, the change in the unemployment rate, the change in the share of males aged 15–39 and a dummy variable for the 33 London boroughs. Robust standard errors in parentheses.