Table 5 Determinants of future migration and the role of aspiration gaps
From: Migration and aspirations – are migrants trapped on a hedonic treadmill?
DV: Migrated in 2000-02 | Full sample | Type of migration | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic opportunity | Economic necessity | Education | Marriage | ||
Positive aspiration gap | 0.11** | 0.30** | -0.23 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
(0.046) | (0.016) | (0.334) | (0.170) | (0.616) | |
Past migration experience | 0.82*** | 0.78*** | 0.36 | 0.40** | 0.13 |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.146) | (0.013) | (0.583) | |
Age group: 25–39 yearsa | -0.46*** | -0.84*** | -1.31*** | -0.52*** | -2.07*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.006) | (0.000) | |
Age group: 40–65 years | -1.08*** | -1.15*** | -2.28*** | -2.46*** | -3.13*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
Men | 0.03 | 0.55*** | 0.87*** | -0.66*** | -0.01 |
(0.572) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.951) | |
No educationb | -0.57*** | -0.65 | 0.58 | 0.19 | |
(0.003) | (0.177) | (0.322) | (0.680) | ||
Junior high school | 0.32*** | 0.22 | -0.09 | -0.12 | 0.93** |
(0.000) | (0.253) | (0.763) | (0.586) | (0.050) | |
Senior high school | 0.68*** | 0.86*** | 0.25 | 0.32 | 2.34*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.433) | (0.138) | (0.000) | |
Higher education | 0.61*** | 0.79*** | -0.70 | 0.72** | 1.26** |
(0.000) | (0.006) | (0.265) | (0.014) | (0.038) | |
Education gap: own vs. highest education in HH | 0.05 | 0.13 | -0.06 | -0.02 | 0.77*** |
(0.261) | (0.251) | (0.756) | (0.865) | (0.000) | |
Income (ln) | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | -0.04 |
(0.329) | (0.183) | (0.285) | (0.517) | (0.401) | |
Participation in community meetings | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.08 | 0.15 | -0.13 |
(0.137) | (0.490) | (0.811) | (0.491) | (0.711) | |
Married | -0.42*** | -1.28*** | -1.16*** | -2.85*** | -1.75*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
HH head | 0.04 | 0.32 | 0.90** | 0.49** | 1.48*** |
(0.625) | (0.109) | (0.014) | (0.048) | (0.000) | |
Household expenditure | -0.20 | 0.26 | 0.23 | -0.13 | 1.14 |
(0.409) | (0.670) | (0.821) | (0.837) | (0.293) | |
Household expenditure squared | 0.01 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
(0.639) | (0.348) | (0.590) | (0.885) | (0.446) | |
Household with farm production | -0.24*** | 0.04 | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.31 |
(0.000) | (0.820) | (0.724) | (0.941) | (0.192) | |
Household with non-farm business | -0.05 | -0.02 | 0.14 | -0.09 | 0.27 |
(0.386) | (0.905) | (0.535) | (0.570) | (0.183) | |
Female household head | -0.08 | 0.15 | 0.37 | -0.41** | -0.24 |
(0.288) | (0.367) | (0.184) | (0.038) | (0.425) | |
HH adults | -0.03** | -0.05 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.08 |
(0.013) | (0.160) | (0.635) | (0.256) | (0.154) | |
HH children | -0.01 | 0.06 | -0.09 | -0.04 | 0.02 |
(0.660) | (0.230) | (0.311) | (0.455) | (0.848) | |
Economic shock in the last three years | 0.01 | 0.18 | -0.04 | 0.18 | 0.17 |
(0.893) | (0.266) | (0.895) | (0.354) | (0.555) | |
Other shock in the last three years | 0.08 | -0.22 | -0.24 | 0.26 | 0.31 |
(0.262) | (0.266) | (0.490) | (0.173) | (0.229) | |
Rural | -0.06 | 0.42*** | 0.59** | -0.00 | 0.23 |
(0.380) | (0.007) | (0.030) | (0.994) | (0.329) | |
Average HH asset value | -0.08*** | -0.15*** | 0.05 | -0.09 | -0.07 |
(0.002) | (0.008) | (0.697) | (0.219) | (0.469) | |
Constant | -0.03 | -1.30 | -5.45* | -1.80 | -7.14** |
(0.971) | (0.408) | (0.060) | (0.315) | (0.014) | |
Province dummies included | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 21512 | 20428 | 19017 | 20368 | 8755 |
Pseudo-R2 | 0.081 | 0.126 | 0.151 | 0.203 | 0.172 |