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Table 5 Determinants of future migration and the role of aspiration gaps

From: Migration and aspirations – are migrants trapped on a hedonic treadmill?

DV: Migrated in 2000-02 Full sample Type of migration
Economic opportunity Economic necessity Education Marriage
Positive aspiration gap 0.11** 0.30** -0.23 0.20 -0.10
(0.046) (0.016) (0.334) (0.170) (0.616)
Past migration experience 0.82*** 0.78*** 0.36 0.40** 0.13
(0.000) (0.000) (0.146) (0.013) (0.583)
Age group: 25–39 yearsa -0.46*** -0.84*** -1.31*** -0.52*** -2.07***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.006) (0.000)
Age group: 40–65 years -1.08*** -1.15*** -2.28*** -2.46*** -3.13***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Men 0.03 0.55*** 0.87*** -0.66*** -0.01
(0.572) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.951)
No educationb -0.57*** -0.65 0.58 0.19  
(0.003) (0.177) (0.322) (0.680)  
Junior high school 0.32*** 0.22 -0.09 -0.12 0.93**
(0.000) (0.253) (0.763) (0.586) (0.050)
Senior high school 0.68*** 0.86*** 0.25 0.32 2.34***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.433) (0.138) (0.000)
Higher education 0.61*** 0.79*** -0.70 0.72** 1.26**
(0.000) (0.006) (0.265) (0.014) (0.038)
Education gap: own vs. highest education in HH 0.05 0.13 -0.06 -0.02 0.77***
(0.261) (0.251) (0.756) (0.865) (0.000)
Income (ln) 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.02 -0.04
(0.329) (0.183) (0.285) (0.517) (0.401)
Participation in community meetings -0.12 -0.13 -0.08 0.15 -0.13
(0.137) (0.490) (0.811) (0.491) (0.711)
Married -0.42*** -1.28*** -1.16*** -2.85*** -1.75***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
HH head 0.04 0.32 0.90** 0.49** 1.48***
(0.625) (0.109) (0.014) (0.048) (0.000)
Household expenditure -0.20 0.26 0.23 -0.13 1.14
(0.409) (0.670) (0.821) (0.837) (0.293)
Household expenditure squared 0.01 -0.07 -0.07 -0.01 -0.09
(0.639) (0.348) (0.590) (0.885) (0.446)
Household with farm production -0.24*** 0.04 -0.09 -0.01 0.31
(0.000) (0.820) (0.724) (0.941) (0.192)
Household with non-farm business -0.05 -0.02 0.14 -0.09 0.27
(0.386) (0.905) (0.535) (0.570) (0.183)
Female household head -0.08 0.15 0.37 -0.41** -0.24
(0.288) (0.367) (0.184) (0.038) (0.425)
HH adults -0.03** -0.05 0.02 0.03 -0.08
(0.013) (0.160) (0.635) (0.256) (0.154)
HH children -0.01 0.06 -0.09 -0.04 0.02
(0.660) (0.230) (0.311) (0.455) (0.848)
Economic shock in the last three years 0.01 0.18 -0.04 0.18 0.17
(0.893) (0.266) (0.895) (0.354) (0.555)
Other shock in the last three years 0.08 -0.22 -0.24 0.26 0.31
(0.262) (0.266) (0.490) (0.173) (0.229)
Rural -0.06 0.42*** 0.59** -0.00 0.23
(0.380) (0.007) (0.030) (0.994) (0.329)
Average HH asset value -0.08*** -0.15*** 0.05 -0.09 -0.07
(0.002) (0.008) (0.697) (0.219) (0.469)
Constant -0.03 -1.30 -5.45* -1.80 -7.14**
(0.971) (0.408) (0.060) (0.315) (0.014)
Province dummies included Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 21512 20428 19017 20368 8755
Pseudo-R2 0.081 0.126 0.151 0.203 0.172
  1. Notes: Reference Category: All Non-Migrants in 2000. Job categories included(private worker, self-employed, unpaid Family work, government).