Table 1 Static flow model estimates for 12 EU-15 destination countries and 9 source cohorts
From: EU enlargement and the race to the bottom of welfare states
Explanatory variables | Dependent variable: Δm ij,t = annual change in the diaspora ratio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
Destination country variables D j,t-1 | |||||
Annual nominal net wage in 10,000 Euro in j | 1.792*** (0.347) | 1.967*** (0.487) | 1.992*** (0.563) | 2.143*** (0.576) | 4.508** (1.952) |
Unemployment rate in % in j | -0.040 (0.043) | -0.072 (0.056) | -0.084 (0.082) | -0.082 (0.101) | -0.329*** (0.119) |
Population in destination country j in mio. persons | 0.017** (0.008) | 0.003 (0.015) | 0.006 (0.015) | 0.003 (0.013) | 0.029 (0.025) |
Southern European country (0/1) | 2.762*** (0.399) | 3.317*** (0.681) | 3.535*** (0.935) | 3.948*** (0.939) | 7.926*** (1.936) |
Regime dummy (restricted freedom of m.) in j (0/1) | 0.822 (0.729) | 0.934 (0.782) | 0.969 (0.789) | 0.873 (1.146) | -10.436 (10.500) |
Public social expenditures/GDP in j | 2.322 (5.179) | 4.988 (5.691) | 9.493** (4.410) | 12.829*** (4.855) | 5.897 (10.227) |
Source-destination (network) effects N ij,t-1 | |||||
Diaspora stock in j in mio. persons | 1.171 (0.949) | 0.848 (1.047) | 0.986 (0.920) | 1.132 (3.055) | |
Education level (ISCED) in age-specific diaspora | 0.660 (1.031) | 1.120 (0.955) | 3.890 (2.918) | ||
Proportion of females in age-specific diaspora | -4.303* (2.543) | -5.050* (2.925 | -2.731 (3.534) | ||
Proportion of employed in age-specific diaspora | 0.318 (2.571) | 0.557 (2.645) | -2.855 (3.599) | ||
Source specific factors S i,t-1 | |||||
Education level (ISCED) in source cohort | 3.579 (3.416) | 1.001 (7.327) | -4.271 (5.739) | ||
Proportion of employed in source cohort | -5.603 (8.846) | -19.142* (10.111) | -17.305** (8.650) | ||
Interaction of push-pull factors and the migration regime I ij,t-1 a | |||||
Annual nominal net wage × regime dummy | -3.479* (2.004) | ||||
Unemployment rate × regime dummy | 0.438** (0.194) | ||||
Public social expenditures/GDP x regime dummy | -5.147 (10.730) | ||||
Diaspora stock in j in mio. persons × regime dummy | -1.996 (4.239) | ||||
Proportion of employed in source × regime dummy | -5.890 (16.186) | ||||
Time dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Age and source dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Source cohort dummies | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
Constant included | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
R-squared | 0.286 | 0.298 | 0.315 | 0.338 | 0.474 |
Number of observations | 432 | 432 | 432 | 432 | 432 |