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Table 3 Comparison of the economic effects on migration flows in the EU-15

From: EU enlargement and the race to the bottom of welfare states

Explanatory variable

Δ of 1 standard dev. from mean of the expl. var.

Coefficients: Direct effect/interaction effect

Δ diaspora ratio: no restriction

Δ diaspora ratio: with restriction

Differential effect of restriction

Annual nominal net wage in 10,000 Euro in destination

0.614 (6140 Euro)

(4) 2.143***/none

(4) 1.316

-

-

(5) 4.508**/-3.479*

(5) 2.768

(5) 0.632

(5) 2.136

(6) 5.108***/-4.129**

(6) 3.136

(6) 0.601

(6) 2.537

(7) 4.391*/-3.200

(7) 2.696

(7) 0.731

(7) 1.965

Unemployment rate in the destination country

2.996 (2.996%-points)

(4) -0.082/none

(4) -0.246

-

-

(5) -0.329***/0.438**

(5) -0.986

(5) 0.327

(5) -1.313

(6) -0.401***/0.505***

(6) -1.201

(6) 0.312

(6) -1.513

(7) -0.420***/0.537***

(7) -1.258

(7) 0.351

(7) -1.609

Proportion of employed in the source cohort

0.056 (5.6%-points)

(4) -19.142*/none

(4) -1.072

-

-

(5) -17.305**/-5.890

(5) -0.969

(5) -1.299

(5) 0.330

(6) -18.296**/-4.262

(6) -1.025

(6) -1.263

(6) 0.238

(7) -18.679**/-3.813

(7) -1.046

(7) -1.260

(7) 0.214

Social expenditures/GDP in the destination country

0.033 (3.3%-points)

(4) 12.829***/none

(4) 0.423

-

-

(5) 5.897/-5.147

(5) 0.195

(5) 0.025

(5) 0.170

Net replacement rate in % in the destination country

0.181 (18.1%-points)

(6) 2.770/-2.668

(6) 0.501

(6) -0.018

(6) 0.519

Annual replacement income in 10,000 Euro in destination

0.580 (5800 Euro)

(7) 1.546/-1.925

(7) 0.897

(7) -0.220

(7) 1.117

  1. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.