Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis

Table 3 Determinants of bilateral migration flows - Robustness checks

Dependent variable: log migration flow	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Independent variables:
Lag.log migration flow			−0.265***
			(0.016)
weighted temperature origin	0.058***	0.031***	0.015	0.013
	(0.015)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.016)
weighted precipitation origin	0.001	0.006**	0.004	0.005*
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)
Lag.weighted temperature origin		0.024**
		(0.011)
Lag.weighted precipitation origin		0.001
		(0.003)
unemployment destination	−0.132***	−0.070***	−0.092***	−0.064***
	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.008)
GDP destination 1000	0.027***	−0.012**	−0.004	−0.013**
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
GDP origin 1000	−0.092***	−0.058***	−0.089***	−0.046**
	(0.017)	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.021)
GDP origin 1000 sq	0.001***	0.001*	0.001***	0
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
demographic pressure	0.024*	0.019	0.029*	0.003
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.017)	(0.015)
log population	−0.505	−0.723*	−1.185***	−0.802*
	(0.345)	(0.370)	(0.451)	(0.469)
trade to GDP ratio	0.001	0.000	0	0
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
EU membership	0.304***	0.308***	0.245***	omitted
	(0.071)	(0.063)	(0.042)	(.)
R-squared		0.022	0.092	0.015
N	14042	13592	11996	11731
RMSE	0.486	0.561	0.521	0.578
F-test	41.77	15.83	31.05	11.92

Note: ***, **, * denote significance levels at one, five and ten percent, respectively. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. Year dummies are included. Column (1) applies the FE estimator to the model in levels. Column (2) estimates the model in first differences, adding the first lags of the climate variables. Column (3) estimates the model in first differences using the first lag of the migration flows as dependent variable. Column (4) excludes the European countries of origin.