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Table 2 Estimation results

From: Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

  Specification 1 Specification 2 Specification 3
  Coeff. t-value Coeff. t-value Coeff. t-value
Czech Republica 0.0086142 0.94 0.0137581 1.61 0.0363270 3.37**
Estoniaa 0.0195203 1.63 0.0207826 1.68* 0.0170489 1.13
Hungarya 0.0058682 0.66 0.0099457 1.11 0.0275268 2.81**
Latviaa 0.0136640 1.58 0.0136286 1.50 −0.0032966 −0.31
Lithuaniaa 0.0298836 2.61** 0.0304373 2.54** 0.0058955 0.39
Slovak Republica 0.0120985 1.19 0.0130839 1.27 0.0101911 0.62
Sloveniaa 0.0121251 1.17 0.0173840 1.74* 0.0415625 3.23**
Czech Republic after accession - - - - 0.0000516 0.00
Estonia after accession - - - - 0.0334383 1.65*
Hungary after accession - - - - 0.0065572 0.57
Latvia after accession - - - - 0.0456591 2.65**
Lithuania after accession - - - - 0.0538456 2.18**
Slovak Republic after accession - - - - 0.0098218 0.68
Slovenia after accession - - - - 0.0034885 0.19
Lagged net migration rate −0.8621185 −4.14** −0.8742497 −4.12** −0.8961853 −4.21**
Free movementb 0.0255262 3.24** - - - -
First year of free movement - - 0.0093630 0.83 0.0060164 0.58
Second year of free movement - - 0.0279214 2.44** 0.0271822 2.56**
Third year of free movement - - 0.0367123 2.84** 0.0389501 3.13**
Fourth year of free movement - - 0.0411250 2.96** 0.0467449 3.47**
Fifth year of free movement - - 0.0288150 1.08 0.0326838 1.30
Sixth year of free movement - - 0.0257276 1.10 0.0328991 1.50
Post accession - - - - −0.0089389 −0.63
Partial restrictions dummyb 0.0046229 0.88 0.0057199 1.23 0.0038009 0.69
(Log) Lagged PCI-ratio (in PPP) destination to home country 0.0175044 1.67* 0.0197802 1.91* 0.0313120 2.90**
(Log) Lagged employment rate home country −0.0497116 −0.58 −0.0892714 −1.07 −0.2786510 −3.11**
(Log) Lagged employment rate destination country 0.0839770* 1.72* 0.0782003 1.62 0.0593511 1.36
(Log) Lagged share of 20–39 years old in destination country 0.1121061 1.32 0.1124977 1.34 0.1133294 1.32
(Log) Lagged share of 20–39 years old in home country 0.0096709 0.03 −0.0434662 −0.15 −0.0674844 −0.12
Delta of (log) PCI-ratio (in PPP) destination to home country 0.1014673 1.3 0.0602686 0.71 0.0743435 0.94
Delta of (log) employment rate home country 0.2344753 1.27 0.2308804 1.26 0.4156827** 2.08**
Delta of (log) employment rate destination country −0.0339566 −0.19 0.0634800 0.37 0.1889106 1.17
Lagged stock of migrants from home in destination country 0.0000002** 1.98** 0.0000002** 2.12** 0.0000002** 2.29**
Constant −0.2105243 −0.51 0.0030846 0.01 0.9299053** 2.24**
Number of observations 1,204 1,204 1,204
R-squared 0.361 0.368 0.380
(Wald test for) common intercept Rejected Rejected Rejected
  1. Reference categories: aPoland; bfull restriction. **Significant at 5 per cent-level, *at 10 per cent-level.