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Table 3 Estimation results for pre- and post-enlargement periods

From: Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

  Pre-accession Post-accession
  1999-2003 2004-2009
  Coefficient t-value Coefficient t-value
Czech Republica 0.00956270 1.48 0.0748285 3.59**
Estoniaa 0.00202300 0.49 0.1169072 3.78**
Hungarya 0.00240400 0.69 0.0893779 3.57**
Latviaa −0.00202470 −0.65 0.0994209 4.09**
Lithuaniaa 0.00700920 1.22 0.1203604 4.20**
Slovak Republica 0.00951000 1.76* 0.0058181 0.35
Sloveniaa 0.00810530 1.13 0.1084566 3.93**
Lagged net migration rate −0.71747930 −2.00** −0.9337470 −3.45**
First year of free movement - - 0.0036164 0.34
Second year of free movement - - 0.0255531 2.34**
Third year of free movement - - 0.0394101 2.91**
Fourth year of free movement - - 0.0525865 3.54**
Fifth year of free movement - - 0.0313255 1.13
Sixth year of free movement - - 0.0366845 1.61
Partial restrictions dummyb - - 0.0039100 0.69
(Log) Lagged PCI-ratio (in PPP) destination to home country 0.00468010 0.94 0.0357357 2.14**
(Log) Lagged employment rate home country −0.05107300 −1.41 −0.6126742 −4.35**
(Log) Lagged employment rate destination country −0.02096600 −0.82 0.2826819 3.08**
(Log) Lagged share of 20–39 years old in destination country 0.00796270 0.29 0.1834743 1.45
(Log) Lagged share of 20–39 years old in home country −0.15627340 −0.53 1.4724600** 2.34**
Delta of (log) PCI-ratio (in PPP) destination to home country −0.06489400 −3.04** 0.0640776 0.55
Delta of (log) employment rate home country 0.05323860 1.16 0.7292919* 1.84*
Delta of (log) employment rate destination country 0.01811520 0.39 0.4352930 1.47
Lagged stock of migrants from home in destination country 0.00000007 2.32** 0.0000003** 1.94**
Constant 0.36201190 1.57 0.8908057 1.45
Number of observations 532 672
R-squared 0.291 0.398
  1. Reference category: aPoland; bfull restriction. **Significant at 5 per cent-level, *at 10 per cent-level.