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Table 3 Estimation results for pre- and post-enlargement periods

From: Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

 

Pre-accession

Post-accession

 

1999-2003

2004-2009

 

Coefficient

t-value

Coefficient

t-value

Czech Republica

0.00956270

1.48

0.0748285

3.59**

Estoniaa

0.00202300

0.49

0.1169072

3.78**

Hungarya

0.00240400

0.69

0.0893779

3.57**

Latviaa

−0.00202470

−0.65

0.0994209

4.09**

Lithuaniaa

0.00700920

1.22

0.1203604

4.20**

Slovak Republica

0.00951000

1.76*

0.0058181

0.35

Sloveniaa

0.00810530

1.13

0.1084566

3.93**

Lagged net migration rate

−0.71747930

−2.00**

−0.9337470

−3.45**

First year of free movement

-

-

0.0036164

0.34

Second year of free movement

-

-

0.0255531

2.34**

Third year of free movement

-

-

0.0394101

2.91**

Fourth year of free movement

-

-

0.0525865

3.54**

Fifth year of free movement

-

-

0.0313255

1.13

Sixth year of free movement

-

-

0.0366845

1.61

Partial restrictions dummyb

-

-

0.0039100

0.69

(Log) Lagged PCI-ratio (in PPP) destination to home country

0.00468010

0.94

0.0357357

2.14**

(Log) Lagged employment rate home country

−0.05107300

−1.41

−0.6126742

−4.35**

(Log) Lagged employment rate destination country

−0.02096600

−0.82

0.2826819

3.08**

(Log) Lagged share of 20–39 years old in destination country

0.00796270

0.29

0.1834743

1.45

(Log) Lagged share of 20–39 years old in home country

−0.15627340

−0.53

1.4724600**

2.34**

Delta of (log) PCI-ratio (in PPP) destination to home country

−0.06489400

−3.04**

0.0640776

0.55

Delta of (log) employment rate home country

0.05323860

1.16

0.7292919*

1.84*

Delta of (log) employment rate destination country

0.01811520

0.39

0.4352930

1.47

Lagged stock of migrants from home in destination country

0.00000007

2.32**

0.0000003**

1.94**

Constant

0.36201190

1.57

0.8908057

1.45

Number of observations

532

672

R-squared

0.291

0.398

  1. Reference category: aPoland; bfull restriction. **Significant at 5 per cent-level, *at 10 per cent-level.