Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

Fertig, Michael; Kahanec, Martin

doi:10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8

Table 7 Predicted net-immigration from Croatia – Accession scenario

From: Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

Stock of Nationals from Croatia in	Low country-specific migration cost
	2010	2015	2020	Change 2010-2020	Relative inflow ^f
Austria	70,000^e	80,646	104,346	34,346	0.4
Belgium	808	6,157	24,658	23,850	0.2
Denmark	485	6,202	24,953	24,468	0.4
Finland	275	4,999	22,873	22,598	0.4
France	17,185^d	22,585	41,137	23,952	0.0
Germany	234,381	252,576	283,978	49,597	0.1
Greece	17,185^d	21,323	38,608	21,423	0.2
Ireland	503	6,936	26,526	26,023	0.6
Italy	21,261	26,066	44,020	22,759	0.0
Netherlands	1,464	8,155	27,883	26,419	0.2
Portugal	82	1,953	16,960	16,878	0.2
Spain	1,727	4,775	21,006	19,279	0.0
Sweden	2,400	8,265	27,285	24,885	0.3
United Kingdom	17,185^d	23,588	43,148	25,963	0.0
Total	263,386	474,225	747,382	362,441	0.1
Stock of Nationals from Croatia in	Medium country-specific migration cost
	2010	2015	2020	Change 2010-2020	Relative inflow ^f
Austria	70,000^e	72,682	89,297	19,297	0.2
Belgium	808	−1,892	9,206	8,398	0.1
Denmark	485	−1,842	9,522	9,037	0.2
Finland	275	−3,061	7,372	7,097	0.1
France	17,185^d	14,536	25,688	8,503	0.0
Germany	234,381	244,737	269,521	35,140	0.0
Greece	17,185^d	13,254	23,062	5,877	0.1
Ireland	503	−1,096	11,158	10,655	0.2
Italy	21,261	18,007	28,526	7,265	0.0
Netherlands	1,464	126	12,527	11,063	0.1
Portugal	82	−6,154	1,239	1,157	0.0
Spain	1,727	−3,312	5,379	3,652	0.0
Sweden	2,400	224	11,873	9,473	0.1
United Kingdom	17,185^d	15,556	27,778	10,593	0.0
Total	263,386	361,765	532,147	147,206	0.0
Stock of Nationals from Croatia in	Medium country-specific migration cost
	2010	2015	2020	Change 2010-2020	Relative inflow ^f
Austria	70,000^e	67,098	78,337	8,337	0.1
Belgium	808	−7,536	−2,039	−2,847	0.0
Denmark	485	−7,482	−1,709	−2,194	0.0
Finland	275	−8,711	−3,908	−4,183	−0.1
France	17,185^d	8,893	14,446	−2,739	0.0
Germany	234,381	239,239	258,983	24,602	0.0
Greece	17,185^d	7,596	11,750	−5,435	0.0
Ireland	503	−6,727	−28	−531	0.0
Italy	21,261	12,358	17,251	−4,010	0.0
Netherlands	1,464	−5,502	1,350	−114	0.0
Portugal	82	−11,837	−10,198	−10,280	−0.1
Spain	1,727	−8,981	−5,990	−7,717	0.0
Sweden	2,400	−5,414	656	−1,744	0.0
United Kingdom	17,185^d	9,924	16,590	−595	0.0
Total	263,386	282,918	375,489	−9,452	0.0

^dStock for 2010 imputed by mean of countries without missing information; ^eEstimate of stock for 2010 taken from http://www.integrationsfonds.at/oeif_dossiers/kroatische_migrantinnen_in_oesterreich/. ^fAccumulated inflows relative to the population in 2010 (in percent).

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