Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

Fertig, Michael; Kahanec, Martin

doi:10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8

Table 8 Predicted net-immigration from Ukraine – Accession scenario

From: Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

Stock of Nationals from Ukraine in	Low country-specific migration cost
	2010	2015	2020	Change 2010-2020	Relative inflow ^f
Austria	14,136	187,876	520,859	506,722	6.0
Belgium	3,014	151,344	447,718	444,704	4.0
Denmark	6,072	161,426	466,910	460,838	8.3
Finland	1,983	142,178	426,384	424,401	7.9
France	17,381	164,933	460,144	442,764	0.7
Germany	137,527	376,543	808,559	671,032	0.8
Greece	55,109	213,350	524,550	469,441	4.2
Ireland	1,741	162,895	478,451	476,710	10.4
Italy	174,129	421,129	865,087	690,958	1.1
Netherlands	2,521	166,832	485,714	483,193	2.9
Portugal	52,423	192,510	476,556	424,133	4.0
Spain	81,718	255,710	590,944	509,226	1.1
Sweden	2,299	155,444	459,020	456,721	4.9
United Kingdom	24,229	189,076	510,155	485,926	0.8
Total	574,282	2,941,246	7,521,051	6,946,769	1.7
Stock of Nationals from Ukraine in	Medium country-specific migration cost
	2010	2015	2020	Change 2010-2020	Relative inflow ^f
Austria	14,136	89,884	293,488	279,352	3.3
Belgium	3,014	52,804	215,760	212,746	1.9
Denmark	6,072	63,034	236,110	230,038	4.1
Finland	1,983	43,460	192,908	190,925	3.6
France	17,381	66,376	228,041	210,660	0.3
Germany	137,527	279,980	593,520	455,993	0.6
Greece	55,109	115,026	294,441	239,332	2.1
Ireland	1,741	64,634	248,885	247,144	5.4
Italy	174,129	324,740	651,537	477,408	0.8
Netherlands	2,521	68,635	256,584	254,063	1.5
Portugal	52,423	93,790	243,060	190,637	1.8
Spain	81,718	157,737	363,842	282,124	0.6
Sweden	2,299	57,009	227,960	225,661	2.4
United Kingdom	24,229	90,896	281,279	257,049	0.4
Total	574,282	1,568,005	4,327,416	3,753,134	0.9
Stock of Nationals from Ukraine in	High country-specific migration cost
	2010	2015	2020	Change 2010-2020	Relative inflow ^f
Austria	14,136	20,540	117,643	103,506	1.2
Belgium	3,014	−16,923	36,468	33,454	0.3
Denmark	6,072	−6,590	57,686	51,614	0.9
Finland	1,983	−26,390	12,475	10,492	0.2
France	17,381	−3,363	48,639	31,259	0.0
Germany	137,527	211,631	426,941	289,414	0.4
Greece	55,109	45,450	116,538	61,429	0.5
Ireland	1,741	−4,898	71,390	69,649	1.5
Italy	174,129	256,513	486,077	311,948	0.5
Netherlands	2,521	−852	79,417	76,896	0.5
Portugal	52,423	23,938	62,612	10,189	0.1
Spain	81,718	88,406	188,199	106,481	0.2
Sweden	2,299	−12,645	49,343	47,044	0.5
United Kingdom	24,229	21,420	104,301	80,072	0.1
Total	574,282	596,236	1,857,730	1,283,448	0.3

^fAccumulated inflows relative to the population in 2010 (in percent).

Back to article page