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Table 8 Predicted net-immigration from Ukraine – Accession scenario

From: Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

Stock of Nationals from Ukraine in Low country-specific migration cost
  2010 2015 2020 Change 2010-2020 Relative inflow f
Austria 14,136 187,876 520,859 506,722 6.0
Belgium 3,014 151,344 447,718 444,704 4.0
Denmark 6,072 161,426 466,910 460,838 8.3
Finland 1,983 142,178 426,384 424,401 7.9
France 17,381 164,933 460,144 442,764 0.7
Germany 137,527 376,543 808,559 671,032 0.8
Greece 55,109 213,350 524,550 469,441 4.2
Ireland 1,741 162,895 478,451 476,710 10.4
Italy 174,129 421,129 865,087 690,958 1.1
Netherlands 2,521 166,832 485,714 483,193 2.9
Portugal 52,423 192,510 476,556 424,133 4.0
Spain 81,718 255,710 590,944 509,226 1.1
Sweden 2,299 155,444 459,020 456,721 4.9
United Kingdom 24,229 189,076 510,155 485,926 0.8
Total 574,282 2,941,246 7,521,051 6,946,769 1.7
Stock of Nationals from Ukraine in Medium country-specific migration cost
  2010 2015 2020 Change 2010-2020 Relative inflow f
Austria 14,136 89,884 293,488 279,352 3.3
Belgium 3,014 52,804 215,760 212,746 1.9
Denmark 6,072 63,034 236,110 230,038 4.1
Finland 1,983 43,460 192,908 190,925 3.6
France 17,381 66,376 228,041 210,660 0.3
Germany 137,527 279,980 593,520 455,993 0.6
Greece 55,109 115,026 294,441 239,332 2.1
Ireland 1,741 64,634 248,885 247,144 5.4
Italy 174,129 324,740 651,537 477,408 0.8
Netherlands 2,521 68,635 256,584 254,063 1.5
Portugal 52,423 93,790 243,060 190,637 1.8
Spain 81,718 157,737 363,842 282,124 0.6
Sweden 2,299 57,009 227,960 225,661 2.4
United Kingdom 24,229 90,896 281,279 257,049 0.4
Total 574,282 1,568,005 4,327,416 3,753,134 0.9
Stock of Nationals from Ukraine in High country-specific migration cost
  2010 2015 2020 Change 2010-2020 Relative inflow f
Austria 14,136 20,540 117,643 103,506 1.2
Belgium 3,014 −16,923 36,468 33,454 0.3
Denmark 6,072 −6,590 57,686 51,614 0.9
Finland 1,983 −26,390 12,475 10,492 0.2
France 17,381 −3,363 48,639 31,259 0.0
Germany 137,527 211,631 426,941 289,414 0.4
Greece 55,109 45,450 116,538 61,429 0.5
Ireland 1,741 −4,898 71,390 69,649 1.5
Italy 174,129 256,513 486,077 311,948 0.5
Netherlands 2,521 −852 79,417 76,896 0.5
Portugal 52,423 23,938 62,612 10,189 0.1
Spain 81,718 88,406 188,199 106,481 0.2
Sweden 2,299 −12,645 49,343 47,044 0.5
United Kingdom 24,229 21,420 104,301 80,072 0.1
Total 574,282 596,236 1,857,730 1,283,448 0.3
  1. fAccumulated inflows relative to the population in 2010 (in percent).