Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 2b | Model 3 | Men | Women | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline hazard (log spell month identifier) | 0.569** | 0.684*** | 0.638*** | 0.549** | 0.344*** | 0.522*** |
(0.017) | (0.004) | (0.009) | (0.032) | (0.009) | (0.003) | |
Age at first migration (years) | 0.0512** | 0.0643*** | 0.0588*** | 0.0531** | 0.0408** | 0.0208 |
(0.016) | (0.004) | (0.008) | (0.030) | (0.020) | (0.326) | |
Female | 0.982*** | 1.125*** | 1.133*** | 1.036*** | ||
(0.001) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.002) | |||
Education (years) | 0.0398 | 0.0501 | 0.0406 | 0.0354 | −0.00538 | 0.0489 |
(0.356) | (0.284) | (0.364) | (0.426) | (0.907) | (0.443) | |
Married | 1.223** | 1.345** | 1.221** | 1.081* | 0.376 | 2.081*** |
(0.037) | (0.019) | (0.024) | (0.073) | (0.400) | (0.002) | |
Occupation before return (wage worker = 1) | 0.0906 | 0.106 | 0.146 | 0.0257 | −0.239 | 0.691 |
(0.762) | (0.744) | (0.667) | (0.930) | (0.421) | (0.140) | |
Working area before return (big city = 1) | 0.0365 | 0.0416 | 0.00725 | 0.00404 | −0.128 | −0.131 |
(0.886) | (0.879) | (0.977) | (0.987) | (0.626) | (0.690) | |
Log average rural per capita annual net income (2004–2008) | 1.389** | 1.359* | 1.841*** | 1.277** | 1.055 | 1.410 |
(0.030) | (0.052) | (0.006) | (0.043) | (0.118) | (0.109) | |
Migrant spouse | −0.786* | −1.028** | −0.833* | −0.805 | −0.497* | −0.967* |
(0.088) | (0.036) | (0.072) | (0.117) | (0.084) | (0.053) | |
Household size | −0.112 | −0.0766 | 0.105 | −0.0486 | −0.0914 | 0.0937 |
(0.242) | (0.483) | (0.349) | (0.636) | (0.436) | (0.562) | |
At least a member above 70 | −0.260 | −0.288 | −0.582* | −0.278 | −0.317 | −0.106 |
(0.426) | (0.418) | (0.095) | (0.392) | (0.422) | (0.809) | |
At least a member aged 55 to 70 | −0.397 | −0.573* | −0.557** | −0.276 | −1.244*** | |
(0.150) | (0.060) | (0.041) | (0.369) | (0.003) | ||
At least one child (<16) | −0.736** | |||||
(0.021) | ||||||
At least one child (12–15) | −0.390 | −0.632 | ||||
(0.292) | (0.113) | |||||
At least one child (6–11) | −1.048*** | −0.173 | ||||
(0.007) | (0.630) | |||||
At least one child (<6) | −0.164 | 0.283 | ||||
(0.631) | (0.475) | |||||
Member aged 55-70* child (12–15) | 0.216 | |||||
(0.748) | ||||||
Member aged 55-70* child (6–11) | −3.610*** | |||||
(0.002) | ||||||
Member aged 55-70* child (<6) | −1.223** | |||||
(0.023) | ||||||
At least a son (12–15) | −0.294 | −0.115 | 0.0677 | |||
(0.474) | (0.775) | (0.914) | ||||
At least a daughter (12–15) | −0.524 | −0.498 | 0.354 | |||
(0.275) | (0.253) | (0.670) | ||||
At least a son (6–11) | −1.196*** | −1.460*** | −0.237 | |||
(0.006) | (0.008) | (0.662) | ||||
At least a daughter (6–11) | −0.369 | 0.00847 | −0.813 | |||
(0.411) | (0.982) | (0.190) | ||||
At least a son (<6) | 0.0476 | 0.176 | −0.195 | |||
(0.900) | (0.668) | (0.757) | ||||
At least a daughter (<6) | −0.200 | −0.187 | −0.500 | |||
(0.587) | (0.640) | (0.439) | ||||
Constant | −19.93*** | −20.57*** | −25.18*** | −19.13*** | −15.38*** | −20.16*** |
(0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.007) | (0.005) | |
Variance of gamma | 0.608 | 0.845 | 0.615 | 0.476 | ||
LR test of variance of gamma = 0 | 1.239 | 2.681 | 1.975 | 0.515 | ||
p-value | 0.133 | 0.051 | 0.080 | 0.236 | ||
Number of person-month observations | 22,986 | 22,986 | 22,986 | 22,986 | 16,154 | 6,832 |
Log likelihood | −740.3 | −738.0 | −726.2 | −736.5 | −444.7 | −283.6 |