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Table 3 Hazard model estimates of migration duration

From: Left-behind children and return migration in China

  Model 1 Model 2 Model 2b Model 3 Men Women
Baseline hazard (log spell month identifier) 0.569** 0.684*** 0.638*** 0.549** 0.344*** 0.522***
(0.017) (0.004) (0.009) (0.032) (0.009) (0.003)
Age at first migration (years) 0.0512** 0.0643*** 0.0588*** 0.0531** 0.0408** 0.0208
(0.016) (0.004) (0.008) (0.030) (0.020) (0.326)
Female 0.982*** 1.125*** 1.133*** 1.036***   
(0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.002)   
Education (years) 0.0398 0.0501 0.0406 0.0354 −0.00538 0.0489
(0.356) (0.284) (0.364) (0.426) (0.907) (0.443)
Married 1.223** 1.345** 1.221** 1.081* 0.376 2.081***
(0.037) (0.019) (0.024) (0.073) (0.400) (0.002)
Occupation before return (wage worker = 1) 0.0906 0.106 0.146 0.0257 −0.239 0.691
(0.762) (0.744) (0.667) (0.930) (0.421) (0.140)
Working area before return (big city = 1) 0.0365 0.0416 0.00725 0.00404 −0.128 −0.131
(0.886) (0.879) (0.977) (0.987) (0.626) (0.690)
Log average rural per capita annual net income (2004–2008) 1.389** 1.359* 1.841*** 1.277** 1.055 1.410
(0.030) (0.052) (0.006) (0.043) (0.118) (0.109)
Migrant spouse −0.786* −1.028** −0.833* −0.805 −0.497* −0.967*
(0.088) (0.036) (0.072) (0.117) (0.084) (0.053)
Household size −0.112 −0.0766 0.105 −0.0486 −0.0914 0.0937
(0.242) (0.483) (0.349) (0.636) (0.436) (0.562)
At least a member above 70 −0.260 −0.288 −0.582* −0.278 −0.317 −0.106
(0.426) (0.418) (0.095) (0.392) (0.422) (0.809)
At least a member aged 55 to 70 −0.397 −0.573*   −0.557** −0.276 −1.244***
(0.150) (0.060)   (0.041) (0.369) (0.003)
At least one child (<16) −0.736**      
(0.021)      
At least one child (12–15)   −0.390 −0.632    
  (0.292) (0.113)    
At least one child (6–11)   −1.048*** −0.173    
  (0.007) (0.630)    
At least one child (<6)   −0.164 0.283    
  (0.631) (0.475)    
Member aged 55-70* child (12–15)    0.216    
   (0.748)    
Member aged 55-70* child (6–11)    −3.610***    
   (0.002)    
Member aged 55-70* child (<6)    −1.223**    
   (0.023)    
At least a son (12–15)     −0.294 −0.115 0.0677
    (0.474) (0.775) (0.914)
At least a daughter (12–15)     −0.524 −0.498 0.354
    (0.275) (0.253) (0.670)
At least a son (6–11)     −1.196*** −1.460*** −0.237
    (0.006) (0.008) (0.662)
At least a daughter (6–11)     −0.369 0.00847 −0.813
    (0.411) (0.982) (0.190)
At least a son (<6)     0.0476 0.176 −0.195
    (0.900) (0.668) (0.757)
At least a daughter (<6)     −0.200 −0.187 −0.500
    (0.587) (0.640) (0.439)
Constant −19.93*** −20.57*** −25.18*** −19.13*** −15.38*** −20.16***
(0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001) (0.007) (0.005)
Variance of gamma 0.608 0.845 0.615 0.476   
LR test of variance of gamma = 0 1.239 2.681 1.975 0.515   
p-value 0.133 0.051 0.080 0.236   
Number of person-month observations 22,986 22,986 22,986 22,986 16,154 6,832
Log likelihood −740.3 −738.0 −726.2 −736.5 −444.7 −283.6
  1. Source: Wuwei 2008 Survey.
  2. Notes: See Table 2. p-values in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. The coefficients are estimated using the complementary log-log model with Gamma-distributed unobserved heterogeneity for columns 1 to 4 and with no unobserved heterogeneity for columns 5 and 6. The coefficient on the duration dependence variable is the log of time.