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Table 3 Hazard model estimates of migration duration

From: Left-behind children and return migration in China

 

Model 1

Model 2

Model 2b

Model 3

Men

Women

Baseline hazard (log spell month identifier)

0.569**

0.684***

0.638***

0.549**

0.344***

0.522***

(0.017)

(0.004)

(0.009)

(0.032)

(0.009)

(0.003)

Age at first migration (years)

0.0512**

0.0643***

0.0588***

0.0531**

0.0408**

0.0208

(0.016)

(0.004)

(0.008)

(0.030)

(0.020)

(0.326)

Female

0.982***

1.125***

1.133***

1.036***

  

(0.001)

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.002)

  

Education (years)

0.0398

0.0501

0.0406

0.0354

−0.00538

0.0489

(0.356)

(0.284)

(0.364)

(0.426)

(0.907)

(0.443)

Married

1.223**

1.345**

1.221**

1.081*

0.376

2.081***

(0.037)

(0.019)

(0.024)

(0.073)

(0.400)

(0.002)

Occupation before return (wage worker = 1)

0.0906

0.106

0.146

0.0257

−0.239

0.691

(0.762)

(0.744)

(0.667)

(0.930)

(0.421)

(0.140)

Working area before return (big city = 1)

0.0365

0.0416

0.00725

0.00404

−0.128

−0.131

(0.886)

(0.879)

(0.977)

(0.987)

(0.626)

(0.690)

Log average rural per capita annual net income (2004–2008)

1.389**

1.359*

1.841***

1.277**

1.055

1.410

(0.030)

(0.052)

(0.006)

(0.043)

(0.118)

(0.109)

Migrant spouse

−0.786*

−1.028**

−0.833*

−0.805

−0.497*

−0.967*

(0.088)

(0.036)

(0.072)

(0.117)

(0.084)

(0.053)

Household size

−0.112

−0.0766

0.105

−0.0486

−0.0914

0.0937

(0.242)

(0.483)

(0.349)

(0.636)

(0.436)

(0.562)

At least a member above 70

−0.260

−0.288

−0.582*

−0.278

−0.317

−0.106

(0.426)

(0.418)

(0.095)

(0.392)

(0.422)

(0.809)

At least a member aged 55 to 70

−0.397

−0.573*

 

−0.557**

−0.276

−1.244***

(0.150)

(0.060)

 

(0.041)

(0.369)

(0.003)

At least one child (<16)

−0.736**

     

(0.021)

     

At least one child (12–15)

 

−0.390

−0.632

   
 

(0.292)

(0.113)

   

At least one child (6–11)

 

−1.048***

−0.173

   
 

(0.007)

(0.630)

   

At least one child (<6)

 

−0.164

0.283

   
 

(0.631)

(0.475)

   

Member aged 55-70* child (12–15)

  

0.216

   
  

(0.748)

   

Member aged 55-70* child (6–11)

  

−3.610***

   
  

(0.002)

   

Member aged 55-70* child (<6)

  

−1.223**

   
  

(0.023)

   

At least a son (12–15)

   

−0.294

−0.115

0.0677

   

(0.474)

(0.775)

(0.914)

At least a daughter (12–15)

   

−0.524

−0.498

0.354

   

(0.275)

(0.253)

(0.670)

At least a son (6–11)

   

−1.196***

−1.460***

−0.237

   

(0.006)

(0.008)

(0.662)

At least a daughter (6–11)

   

−0.369

0.00847

−0.813

   

(0.411)

(0.982)

(0.190)

At least a son (<6)

   

0.0476

0.176

−0.195

   

(0.900)

(0.668)

(0.757)

At least a daughter (<6)

   

−0.200

−0.187

−0.500

   

(0.587)

(0.640)

(0.439)

Constant

−19.93***

−20.57***

−25.18***

−19.13***

−15.38***

−20.16***

(0.000)

(0.001)

(0.000)

(0.001)

(0.007)

(0.005)

Variance of gamma

0.608

0.845

0.615

0.476

  

LR test of variance of gamma = 0

1.239

2.681

1.975

0.515

  

p-value

0.133

0.051

0.080

0.236

  

Number of person-month observations

22,986

22,986

22,986

22,986

16,154

6,832

Log likelihood

−740.3

−738.0

−726.2

−736.5

−444.7

−283.6

  1. Source: Wuwei 2008 Survey.
  2. Notes: See Table 2. p-values in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. The coefficients are estimated using the complementary log-log model with Gamma-distributed unobserved heterogeneity for columns 1 to 4 and with no unobserved heterogeneity for columns 5 and 6. The coefficient on the duration dependence variable is the log of time.
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