Skilled migrants and labour market integration: how important is the selection process?

Table 2 Estimated treatment effects on rates of employment of GSM migrants from CSAM cohort 1 to cohort 2

Sex		Men		Women
Visa category		Family	GSM	Family	GSM
Observations		555	1323	1284	795
Proportion employed		0.6541	0.9048	0.4252	0.8679
Linear probability model
Per cent correctly predicted^a		0.6212	0.8376	0.6300	0.7943
	Of those employed	0.7104	0.9102	0.5649	0.8815
	Of those not employed	0.4525	0.1474	0.6781	0.2213
Treatment effects^b		0.0702 (0.0412)		−0.0389 (0.0347)
Probit model
Per cent correctly predicted^a		0.6276	0.8357	0.6362	0.7918
	Of those employed	0.7130	0.9079	0.5737	0.8796
	Of those not employed	0.4662	0.1492	0.6825	0.2152
Treatment effects^b		0.0668 (0.0402)		−0.0220 (0.0251)

Source: Regressions calculated using STATA on pooled data reported for visa principal applicants in the initial waves of cohorts 1 and 2 of CSAM;
Control population refers to Family Stream migrants and treatment population to GSM; migrants treatment period is cohort 2 reported by CSAM;
^apredicted employment evaluated on basis of point estimates of relevant regression model
^btreatment effect = population average impact of treatment on probability of employment for treated population in treatment period (see Puhani, 2012) standard errors in parentheses treatment effects calculated using the “predictnl” procedure in Stata