Skilled migrants and labour market integration: how important is the selection process?

Table 3 Selected difference in differences probit regression statistics for the incidence of employment of Primary Applicants of Family Stream and Skill Stream visas aged 18-54

Treatment population		GSMs only				GSM and employer sponsored migrants
Regression specification		1	2	3	4	1	2	3	4
Per cent correctly predicted^a		0.7502	0.7719	0.7723	0.7758	0.7854	0.8044	0.8057	0.8083
	Of those employed	0.8441	0.8895	0.8837	0.8805	0.8840	0.9133	0.9082	0.9082
	Of those not employed	0.5550	0.5275	0.5409	0.5584	0.5261	0.5181	0.5362	0.5456
Likelihood		−6211.1	−5846.8	−5803.2	−5753.2	−6612.5	−6197.4	−6155.7	−6101.6
R2		0.1772	0.2255	0.2313	0.2379	0.2182	0.2673	0.2722	0.2786
Treatment effects^b		0.1437	0.1158	0.1144	0.1081	0.1205	0.0936	0.0895	0.0853
		(0.0248)	(0.0257)	(0.0263)	(0.0275)	(0.0205)	(0.0205)	(0.0208)	(0.0218)
	For men	0.1526	0.1289	0.1229	0.1094	0.1162	0.0938	0.0867	0.0788
		(0.0263)	(0.0273)	(0.0279)	(0.0288)	(0.0212)	(0.0210)	(0.0212)	(0.0218)
	For women	0.1287	0.0941	0.1003	0.1060	0.1288	0.0934	0.0949	0.0979
		(0.0224)	(0.0229)	(0.0235)	(0.0253)	(0.0192)	(0.0195)	(0.0200)	(0.0217)

Source: Regressions calculated using STATA on pooled data reported for visa principal applicants in the initial waves of LSIA 3 and cohorts 1 and 2 of CSAM;
Control population refers to Family Stream migrants and treatment period reported by CSAM data standard errors in parentheses; pooled sample size is 11,973 for Family Stream and GSM migrants, and 14,367 for Family Stream, GSM and Employer Sponsored migrants; proportion of pooled sample employed is 67.5% for GSMs only, and 72.4% for GSM and Employer Sponsored migrants; treatment effect calculated by evaluating predicted probabilities of employment implied by the estimated model, via the “predictnl” Stata command; all models interact all covariates with the gender dummy variable; specification 1 includes covariates for marriage, employed spouse, dependent children, onshore visa, and time in Australia; specification 2 augments specification 1 to include English language and age covariates; specification 3 augments specification 2 to include education qualifications covariates; specification 4 augments specification 3 to include a wide range of covariates including reasons for migrating, country of origin and state of residence;
^aPredicted employment evaluated using threshold probability of 50%;
^bTreatment effect = population average impact of treatment on probability of employment for treated population in treatment period (see Puhani, 2012)