The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment

Table 4 Estimated impact of Mariel Boatlift on fertility of women age 15–44 in Miami

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Included covariates	(a)–(b)	(a)–(f)	(a)–(g)	(a)–(h)	(a)–(i)
Separate-year treatment effects
1982	0.014	0.007	0.005	0.009	0.011
1982	(0.025)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.026)
1983	− 0.041**	− 0.034*	− 0.038*	− 0.039*	−0.040*
1983	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.020)	(0.020)
1984	− 0.007	0.007	0.004	0.004	0.005
1984	(0.020)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)
1985	0.012	0.006	0.005	0.008	0.008
1985	(0.022)	(0.023)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)
1986	− 0.032**	− 0.036**	− 0.038**	− 0.039**	− 0.041**
1986	(0.015)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)
1987	0.006	0.006	0.005	0.005	0.003
1987	(0.017)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.018)
1988	0.011	0.006	0.004	0.006	0.005
1988	(0.017)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.018)
Observations	71,571	58,921	58,921	58,921	58,921
R-squared	0.002	0.035	0.037	0.064	0.067

Sample consists of women age 15–44. The comparison group encompasses all observations from New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cleveland, Houston, San Diego, New Orleans, Tampa St. Petersburg, and Portland. The control variables in column (1) include MSA and year dummies. The control variables in column (2) include MSA, year, age, ethnicity, and family income dummy variables as well as the number of previous births by the individual and MSA-level lagged male and female unemployment rates. The control variables in column (3) include all the control variables in column (2) plus the level of completed education of an individual. The control variables in column (4) include all the control variables in column (3) plus a dummy variable for marital status. The control variables in column (5) include all the control variables in column (4) plus an interaction term for ethnicity and education and an interaction term for ethnicity and marital status. Sample weights are used in all regressions. All specifications are estimated by OLS. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p value < 0.01, **p value < 0.05, *p value < 0.1