The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment

Table 7 Estimated impacts of Mariel Boatlift (using all other unaffected MSAs as the comparison)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Included covariates	(a)–(b)	(a)–(f)	(a)–(g)	(a)–(h)	(a)–(i)
Separate-year treatment effects
1982	0.014	0.008	0.007	0.008	0.010
1982	(0.024)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.025)
1983	− 0.036**	− 0.034*	− 0.035*	− 0.037**	− 0.037**
1983	(0.017)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)
1984	− 0.007	0.003	0.002	0.000	0.001
1984	(0.019)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.021)
1985	0.014	0.009	0.009	0.010	0.010
1985	(0.021)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)
1986	− 0.025*	− 0.022	− 0.023	− 0.024	− 0.026*
1986	(0.014)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.015)	(0.015)
1987	− 0.006	0.000	0.000	0.001	− 0.001
1987	(0.016)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.017)
1988	0.008	0.011	0.010	0.013	0.012
1988	(0.016)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)
Observations	184,312	151,408	151,408	151,408	151,408
R-squared	0.001	0.033	0.034	0.066	0.068

Sample consists of women age 15–44. The comparison group encompasses observations from all identified metropolitan areas except Miami. The control variables in column (1) include MSA and year dummies. The control variables in column (2) include MSA, year, age, ethnicity, and family income dummy variables as well as the number of previous births by the individual and MSA-level lagged male and female unemployment rates. The control variables in column (3) include all the control variables in column (2) plus the level of completed education of an individual. The control variables in column (4) include all the control variables in column (3) plus a dummy variable for marital status. The control variables in column (5) include all the control variables in column (4) plus an interaction term for ethnicity and education and an interaction term for ethnicity and marital status. Sample weights are used in all regressions. All specifications are estimated by OLS. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p value < 0.01, **p value < 0.05, *p value < 0.1