First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions

Table 10 Tests for the influence of education, occupation, and industry based on two-way transitions: matched CPS data, 1996–2013

	Specification
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Panel A. Transitions from employment to unemployment
Immigrant	0.00236^***	0.00232^***	0.00237^***	0.00237^***	0.00232^***
Immigrant	(0.00018)	(0.00018)	(0.00018)	(0.00018)	(0.00018)
Unemployment	0.000985^***	0.000249^**	0.000356^***	0.00407^***	0.00250^**
Unemployment	(0.000028)	(0.000105)	(0.0000635)	(0.00122)	(0.00122)
Unemployment*Immigrant	0.000503^***	0.000397^***	0.000352^***	0.000436^***	0.000308^***
Unemployment*Immigrant	(0.000074)	(0.000074)	(0.0000739)	(0.0000742)	(0.0000744)
Unemployment*Education indicators	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
Unemployment*Industry indicators	No	No	Yes	No	Yes
Unemployment*Occupation indicators	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Observations	8,622,334	8,622,334	8,622,334	8,622,334	8,622,334
Mean of dependent variable	0.0128	0.0128	0.0128	0.0128	0.0128
Panel B. Transitions from unemployment to employment
Immigrant	0.0602^***	0.0613^***	0.0607^***	0.0601^***	0.0616^***
Immigrant	(0.0037)	(0.0037)	(0.0037)	(0.0037)	(0.00371)
Unemployment	− 0.0329^***	− 0.0192^***	− 0.0323^***	− 0.0525^***	− 0.0391^*
Unemployment	(0.000438)	(0.00528)	(0.00588)	(0.0188)	(0.0206)
Unemployment*Immigrant	0.00262^**	0.00208^**	0.00240^**	0.00268^***	0.00184^*
Unemployment*Immigrant	(0.00102)	(0.00103)	(0.00102)	(0.00102)	(0.00103)
Unemployment*Education indicators	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
Unemployment*Industry indicators	No	No	Yes	No	Yes
Unemployment*Occupation indicators	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Observations	370,144	370,144	370,144	370,144	370,144
Mean of dependent variable	0.2976	0.2976	0.2976	0.2976	0.2976

Notes: The sample consists of people aged 20–64 who are in the labor force for any two consecutive months. All estimates are calculated using sample weights provided by the CPS. Standard errors are adjusted for multiple observations per individual. All specifications also included a constant, age, age squared, gender, marital status, race, education, occupation and industry, and state and month fixed effects. Unemployment = the state-level unemployment rate − the national natural rate of unemployment
^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01