First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions

Table 12 Estimated transitions between employment and unemployment: matched CPS data, 1996–2007

	Specification
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Panel A. Linear regressions for probability of employment-to-unemployment transition
Immigrant	0.00211^***	0.00227^***	0.00345^***	0.00221^***
Immigrant	(0.000211)	(0.000218)	(0.000194)	(0.000237)
Unemployment	0.00144^***	0.00132^***	0.00124^***	0.00131^***
Unemployment	(0.0000658)	(0.0000673)	(0.0000676)	(0.0000727)
Unemployment*Immigrant		0.000974^***	0.00105^***	0.00105^***
Unemployment*Immigrant		(0.000172)	(0.000173)	(0.000193)
UnemploymentRisingImmigrant				− 0.000272
UnemploymentRisingImmigrant				(0.000408)
Constant	0.0556^***	0.0555^***	0.0124^***	0.0553^***
Constant	(0.00111)	(0.00111)	(0.000192)	(0.00111)
Personal and job controls	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
Observations	5,826,823	5,826,823	5,826,823	5,826,823
Panel B. Linear regressions for probability of unemployment-to-employment transition
Immigrant	0.0603^***	0.0600^***	0.0539^***	0.0592^***
Immigrant	(0.00440)	(0.00441)	(0.00418)	(0.00509)
Unemployment	− 0.0466^***	− 0.0470^***	− 0.0490^***	− 0.0473^***
Unemployment	(0.00158)	(0.00165)	(0.00168)	(0.00185)
Unemployment* Immigrant		0.00357	0.00329	0.00436
Unemployment* Immigrant		(0.00372)	(0.00383)	(0.00448)
UnemploymentFalling Immigrant				− 0.00375
UnemploymentFalling Immigrant				(0.00741)
Constant	0.601^***	0.601^***	0.340^***	0.597^***
Constant	(0.0210)	(0.0210)	(0.00395)	(0.0210)
Personal and job controls	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
Observations	199,530	199,530	199,530	199,530

Notes: The sample consists of people aged 20–64 who are in the labor force for any two consecutive months. All estimates are calculated using sample weights provided by the CPS. Standard errors are adjusted for multiple observations per individual. All specifications also included a constant, age, age squared, gender, marital status, race, education, occupation and industry, and state and month fixed effects except Specification 3, which excludes personal and job controls. Unemployment = the state-level unemployment rate − the national natural rate of unemployment
^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01