First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions

Table 3 Two-way transitions between employment and unemployment: matched CPS data, 1996–2013

	Specification
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Panel A. Transition from employment to unemployment
Immigrant	0.00291^***	0.00236^***	0.00342^***	0.00222^***
Immigrant	(0.000179)	(0.000180)	(0.000161)	(0.000210)
Unemployment	0.00107^***	0.000985^***	0.000891^***	0.000925^***
Unemployment	(0.0000267)	(0.0000280)	(0.0000279)	(0.0000327)
Unemployment*Immigrant		0.000503^***	0.000464^***	0.000415^***
Unemployment*Immigrant		(0.0000740)	(0.0000746)	(0.0000874)
UnemploymentRisingImmigrant				0.00000653
UnemploymentRisingImmigrant				(0.000161)
Constant	0.0549^***	0.0551^***	0.0121^***	0.0548^***
Constant	(0.000934)	(0.000934)	(0.000161)	(0.000935)
Personal and job controls	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
Observations	8,622,334	8,622,334	8,622,334	8,622,334
Mean of dependent variable	0.0128	0.0128	0.0128	0.0128
Panel B. Transition from unemployment to employment
Immigrant	0.0655^***	0.0602^***	0.0542^***	0.0586^***
Immigrant	(0.00297)	(0.00370)	(0.00361)	(0.00441)
Unemployment	− 0.0324^***	− 0.0329^***	− 0.0334^***	− 0.0320^***
Unemployment	(0.000412)	(0.000438)	(0.000440)	(0.000517)
Unemployment* Immigrant		0.00262^**	0.00266^**	0.00245^*
Unemployment* Immigrant		(0.00102)	(0.00104)	(0.00125)
UnemploymentFallingImmigrant				− 0.00108
UnemploymentFallingImmigrant				(0.00201)
Constant	0.592^***	0.594^***	0.334^***	0.590^***
Constant	(0.0147)	(0.0147)	(0.00286)	(0.0147)
Personal and job controls	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
Observations	370,144	370,144	370,144	370,144
Mean of dependent variable	0.2976	0.2976	0.2976	0.2976

Notes: The sample consists of people aged 20–64 who are in the labor force for any two consecutive months. All estimates are calculated using sample weights provided by the CPS. Standard errors are adjusted for multiple observations per individual. All specifications also included a constant, age, age squared, gender, marital status, race, education, occupation and industry, and state and month fixed effects except Specification 3, which excludes personal and job controls. Unemployment = the state-level unemployment rate −the national natural rate of unemployment
^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01