First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions

Table 5 Robustness checks: matched CPS data, 1996–2013

	Specification
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Consistent MSA	Exclude self-employed	Time-varying NAIRU	Lead unemployment rate
Panel A. Transition from employment to unemployment
Immigrant	0.00251^***	0.00184^***	0.00221^***	0.00233^***
Immigrant	(0.000189)	(0.000190)	(0.000186)	(0.000180)
Unemployment	0.00100^***	0.000874^***	0.00100^***	0.00101^***
Unemployment	(0.0000309)	(0.0000293)	(0.0000282)	(0.0000280)
Unemployment*Immigrant	0.000426^***	0.000463^***	0.000513^***	0.000518^***
Unemployment*Immigrant	(0.0000766)	(0.0000774)	(0.0000749)	(0.0000742)
Personal and job controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	6,287,529	7,652,210	8,622,334	8,622,334
Mean of dependent variable	0.0127	0.0129	0.0128	0.0128
Panel B. Transition from unemployment to employment
Immigrant	0.0597^***	0.0644^***	0.0596^***	0.0600^***
Immigrant	(0.00389)	(0.00379)	(0.00386)	(0.00370)
Unemployment	− 0.0326^***	− 0.0329^***	− 0.0333^***	− 0.0331^***
Unemployment	(0.000487)	(0.000445)	(0.000442)	(0.000438)
Unemployment*Immigrant	0.00243^**	0.00247^**	0.00269^***	0.00275^***
Unemployment*Immigrant	(0.00106)	(0.00104)	(0.00103)	(0.00102)
Personal and job controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	275,109	352,498	370,144	370,144
Mean of dependent variable	0.2935	0.2920	0.2976	0.2976

Notes: The sample consists of people aged 20–64 who are in the labor force for any two consecutive months. All estimates are calculated using sample weights provided by the CPS. Standard errors are adjusted for multiple observations per individual. All specifications also included a constant, age, age squared, gender, marital status, race, education, occupation and industry, and state and month fixed effects. In Specification 1, observations with not identified MSA are dropped from the sample. Specification 2 excludes self-employed workers. In Specification 3, Unemployment = the state-level unemployment rate − the time-varying national natural rate of unemployment. In Specification 4, Unemployment = the lead period (t + 1) state-level unemployment rate − the national natural rate of unemployment
^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01