First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions

Table 6 Three-way transitions across all labor force states: matched CPS data, 1996–2013

	Transition
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Employed to unemployed	Employed to not in labor force	Unemployed to employed	Unemployed to not in labor force	Not in labor force to employed	Not in labor force to unemployed
Immigrant	0.00222^***	0.00659^***	0.0412^***	0.0188^***	0.0144^***	0.00168^***
Immigrant	(0.000175)	(0.000239)	(0.00303)	(0.00265)	(0.000753)	(0.000509)
Unemployment	0.000965^***	− 0.000103^***	− 0.0254^***	− 0.00543^***	− 0.00296^***	0.00347^***
Unemployment	(0.0000274)	(0.0000334)	(0.000366)	(0.000347)	(0.000103)	(0.0000908)
Unemployment* Immigrant	0.000494^***	− 0.000480^***	0.00350^***	− 0.00223^***	0.0000601	0.00104^***
Unemployment* Immigrant	(0.0000721)	(0.0000845)	(0.000846)	(0.000774)	(0.000251)	(0.000211)
Constant	0.0515^***	0.139^***	0.414^***	0.414^***	0.155^***	0.100^***
Constant	(0.000899)	(0.00122)	(0.0120)	(0.0113)	(0.00244)	(0.00201)
Personal and job controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	8,805,216	8,805,216	457,460	457,460	2,416,885	2,416,885
Mean of dependent variable	0.0125	0.0215	0.2403	0.1927	0.0651	0.0379

Notes: The sample consists of people aged 20–64. All estimates are calculated using sample weights provided by the CPS. Standard errors are adjusted for multiple observations per individual. All specifications also included a constant, age, age squared, gender, marital status, race, education, occupation and industry, and state and month fixed effects except Specification 5 and 6, where occupation and industry are not available for workers not in the labor force. Unemployment = the state-level unemployment rate − the national natural rate of unemployment
^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01