First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions

Table 7 Two-way transitions by country of origin: matched CPS data, 1996–2013

	Employment to unemployment	Unemployment to employment
Unemployment*Mexico	0.00153^***	0.00311^*
Unemployment*Mexico	(0.000158)	(0.00166)
Unemployment*Canada	− 0.000482	− 0.000439
Unemployment*Canada	(0.000340)	(0.00679)
Unemployment*Other Americas	0.000739^***	− 0.000913
Unemployment*Other Americas	(0.000154)	(0.00191)
Unemployment*Europe	− 0.000454^***	0.00165
Unemployment*Europe	(0.000138)	(0.00265)
Unemployment*Asia	− 0.000427^***	0.00312^*
Unemployment*Asia	(9.01e−05)	(0.00177)
Unemployment*Pacific	0.000242	− 0.000780
Unemployment*Pacific	(0.000511)	(0.00713)
Unemployment*Africa	0.000346	0.00154
Unemployment*Africa	(0.000368)	(0.00467)
Observations	8,622,334	370,144

Notes: The sample consists of people aged 20–64 who are in the labor force for any two consecutive months. All estimates are calculated using sample weights provided by the CPS. Standard errors are adjusted for multiple observations per individual. All specifications also included a constant, the immigrant dummy by country of origin, the business cycle control variable, relative personal and job controls, and state and month fixed effects, comparable to the baseline model in Table 3 Specification 2. Unemployment = the state-level unemployment rate − the national natural rate of unemployment
^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01