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Table 9 Test for structural changes brought about by the Great Recession: matched CPS data, 1996–2013

From: First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions

 

Specification

(1)

(2)

(3)

Panel A. Transition from employment to unemployment

 Pre-recession

0.0575***

0.0574***

0.0573***

(0.00114)

(0.00114)

(0.00114)

 Post-recession

0.0731***

0.0733***

0.0780***

(0.00621)

(0.00621)

(0.00771)

 Recession*Immigrant

0.00117***

− 0.000424

− 0.00169**

(0.000331)

(0.000487)

(0.000684)

 Recession*Unemployment

− 0.000457***

− 0.000414***

− 0.000401***

(0.0000692)

(0.0000720)

(0.0000849)

 Recession*Unemployment*Immigrant

 

− 0.000502**

− 0.000246

 

(0.000212)

(0.000256)

 Recession*Unemployment*Rising*Immigrant

  

− 0.000223

  

(0.000481)

 Personal and job controls

Yes

Yes

Yes

 Observations

8,622,334

8,622,334

8,622,334

Panel B. Transition from unemployment to employment

 Pre-recession

0.583***

0.583***

0.581***

(0.0219)

(0.0219)

(0.0219)

 Post-recession

0.457***

0.455***

0.566***

(0.105)

(0.105)

(0.118)

 Recession*Immigrant

0.00768

0.0162*

0.0257**

(0.00541)

(0.00849)

(0.0102)

 Recession*Unemployment

0.0226***

0.0232***

0.0229***

(0.00141)

(0.00149)

(0.00177)

 Recession*Unemployment*Immigrant

 

− 0.00384

− 0.00502

 

(0.00403)

(0.00487)

 Recession*Unemployment*Falling*Immigrant

  

0.00828

  

(0.00815)

 Personal and job controls

Yes

Yes

Yes

 Observations

370,144

370,144

370,144

  1. Notes: The sample period covers 1996–2013. All specifications use a non-constant regression method. Pre-recession is a dummy, 1 for January 1996 to December 2007, 0 for January 2008 to December 2013. Post-recession is a dummy, 1 for January 2008 to December 2013, 0 for January 1996 to December 2007. The sample consists of people aged 20–64 who are in the labor force for any two consecutive months. All estimates are calculated using sample weights provided by the CPS. Standard errors are adjusted for multiple observations per individual. All specifications also included age, age squared, gender, marital status, race, education, occupation and industry, and state and month fixed effects. Unemployment = the state-level unemployment rate − the national natural rate of unemployment
  2. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01