Does stricter immigration policy affect college enrollment and public-private school choice of natives?

Table 1 LAWA and size of foreign-born population in Arizona’s education system

	Avg. pre-post difference in Arizona	Avg. pre-post difference synth. AZ	DD estimates	Rank, lowest to highest	P value from one-tailed test, P(Δ≤ΔAZ)
A. Elementary school
Number of immigrant in all schools	−11,791	−2,700	−9,091	1/44	0.023
Share of immigrant in all schools	−0.032	−0.021	−0.011	1/44	0.023
Share of immigrant in public schools	−0.035	−0.023	−0.012	1/44	0.023
B. Secondary school
Number of immigrant in all schools	−11,088	−5,373	−5,716	3/44	0.068
Share of immigrant in all schools	−0.026	−0.009	−0.017	1/44	0.023
Share of immigrant in public schools	−0.028	−0.009	−0.019	1/44	0.023
C. College
Number of immigrant in all schools	8,664	14,690	−6,025	4/44	0.091
Share of immigrant in all schools	−0.010	0.005	−0.015	1/44	0.023
Share of immigrant in public colleges	−0.013	−0.001	−0.012	3/44	0.068

Notes: Estimates based on IPUMS 5% 2000 Census and 2001–2015 American Community Survey (ACS). The pre-treatment period is 2000–2006, while the post-treatment period is 2007–2015. Synthetic Arizona is constructed by matching on the following: the share of construction industry, the share of agricultural industry, the share of manufacturing industry, the share of foreign-born in the state, the share of non-Hispanic whites in the population, the average age in the state, and the outcome variable itself from 2001 to 2006. The one-tailed test of the significance of the difference-in-difference estimates uses the empirical distribution of the placebo effect estimates of LAWA for states in the donor pool. California is excluded from the test because synthetic California poorly matches actual California prior to 2007